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June 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines
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May 2021 Headline Industrial Production Improves
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May 2021 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Declined
Analyst Opinion of the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey
Overall, this report was worse than last month and key elements improvements were mixed
This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is sentiment-based. The Philly Fed historically is one of the more negative of all the Fed manufacturing surveys but has been more positive than the others recently.
The index moved from 50.2 to 31.5. Positive numbers indicate market expansion, negative numbers indicate contraction. The market expected (from Econoday) 39.5 to 48.0 (consensus +45.0).
Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the May
April 2021 Headline Industrial Production Improves
The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) improved month-over-month - and remains in expansion year-over-year due to comparison to the pandemic lockdown period one year ago. Our analysis shows the three-month rolling average improved.
Analyst Opinion of Industrial Production
The best way to view this is the 3-month rolling averages which improved. Note that:
Total industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April. The indexes for mining and utilities increased 0.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively; the index for manufacturing rose 0.4 percent despite a drop in motor vehicle assemblies that principally resulted from shortages of semiconductors. An important contributor to the gain in factory output was the return to operation of plants that were damaged by February s severe weather in the south central region of the country and had remained offline in March. The weather-induced drop in total industria
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