39.47%
Joey Lucchesi – The long-awaited Lucchesi breakout is here! Finally! Well, kinda. The Mets are using Lucchesi more as an opener than a starter – he has made two starts for three innings each, plus a two-inning relief appearance. Over those eight innings, he has a 6.75 ERA but a 1.45 FIP and 2.98 xFIP, thanks to a 26.5% K%-BB%. Also, they sent him to the alternate site. They don’t need a 5th starter until next week, so maybe this is a temporary demotion because he isn’t needed? Hard to say. For now, there is no reason to add Lucchesi, but he’s worth having on watchlist. His velocity is up a bit and those K and BB numbers are really intriguing. Let’s wait and see what the Mets do with him and how he performs before making a move. If anything, he’s a drop right now. You can’t use a roster spot on him and he’s not likely to make or break your season if you cut him now.
April 1, 2021
Bold prediction season is the best. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. And let’s get right to it.
1.
Nick Castellanos is a top 10 FanGraphs Points OF. His Depth Charts projection pegs him at a .337 wOBA, 32nd highest among OF. The market likes him a bit more – his $19.50 average salary in first-year FanGraphs Points leagues is 24th among OF. I think those are both too low. I was going to boldly predict a .360 wOBA, but THE BAT X has him at .361, so I feel the need to be bolder. Top 10 OF. Castellanos has been hitting the ball harder dating back to August 2019 and posted a career-high walk rate in 2020. He chased fewer pitches, too. I think he brings the strike outs back down, gets better batted ball luck, and breaks out in a big way.
January 27, 2021
In ottoneu (or really any keeper/dynasty format) you generally want to keep players with surplus – guys whose production will be worth more than the cost to keep them – and cut players without. Of course, it isn’t always that simple. With less than a week before the Ottoneu keeper deadline, we’ll look at three players who I am cutting or trading, despite their projected surplus.
For the purposes of this article, when I talk about a player’s surplus, I am talking about value minus cost where:
Value = The value provided in Justin’s surplus calculator, which is based on Depth Charts projections