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Only Democracy Reform Can Stop Trumpism

New Report: The Greatest Advantage in US Elections Is Partisanship, Not Incumbency

A new report from the nonpartisan group FairVote reinforces what it and other political reform advocates and experts have said for years: Partisanship is becoming the primary determinant of electoral outcomes in nearly every election. FairVote recently released its 2020 iteration of “Monopoly Politics,” a biennial project in which the group predicts the results of all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives before each major election cycle, and they do it with impressive accuracy. According to the 2020 report, FairVote predicted “357 high confidence seats with a 99.7% accuracy rate, accounting for 82.1% of seats in the House of Representatives.” The group bases its predictions on prior voting patterns, not on polling results, a methodology that has worked since FairVote began the project in 1997.

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