China's disappointing post-COVID recovery has raised doubts about the foundations of its economic model and stoked expectations policymakers will need to consider reforms, as consumers hold off spending, foreign firms divest, manufacturers struggle for buyers, and local governments contend with huge debt burdens. Policymakers have pledged to roll out further measures to help shore up growth after the measures implemented since June had only a modest effect, but analysts caution Beijing's fiscal capacity is now very limited. To prop up faltering growth, the People's Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 50 basis points on Feb. 5, the biggest in two years, releasing 1 trillion yuan ($139.0 billion) in long-term liquidity.
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While the official purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to have improved to 49.7 in November from last month's unexpected drop to 49.5, the median forecast of 31 economists in a Reuters poll has the index staying below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion. The world's second-largest economy has been unable to mount a strong post-COVID recovery this year as a deep crisis in the property market, local government debt risks, slow global growth and geopolitical tensions dented momentum. A flurry of policy support measures has had only a modest effect, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus.
While the official purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to have improved to 49.7 in November from last month's unexpected drop to 49.5, the median forecast of 31 economists in a Reuters poll has the index staying below the 50-point level demarcating contraction from expansion. The world's second-largest economy has been unable to mount a strong post-COVID recovery this year as a deep crisis in the property market, local government debt risks, slow global growth and geopolitical tensions dented momentum. A flurry of policy support measures has had only a modest effect, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus.