of this deal a breakout time extended to one year. we will see multiple trip wires along the way. if iran cheats, we will know it and have time to react. do you agree there is enough safeguards in place that the iranians will not have any nuclear weapons in 15 years from now? yeah, i have to tell you, john, that s a bold claim that joel made that he guarantees that iran will not have a nuclear weapon ever. which is amazing. my approach to the middle east is i sum the worst of the middle east and get surprise on the up side rather than assuming the best and def stated on the down side. i wasn t in washington in 2003 after the war in iraq but my recollection and assessment is there were too many people overly optimistic they would be a transformational moment in the middle east by invading saddam and what turn ed out to be a nonexistent nuclear weapon program f. joel believes the intelligence community will get it right, he has to explain why they got it wrong on china,