Assembly Polls 2023: Exit polling is very difficult work. Two notable agencies are differing hugely on exit poll projections for some of the states. Only one of them can be right. From reasons like India’s sheer diversity to shortcomings in sampling and work ethic, exit polling can go wrong for a number of reasons
The extreme divergence between two prominent polling agencies has made MP tough to call. If BJP wins, credit will go to CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan. But Congress ran one of its best campaigns in MP, though its poll guarantees that worked in other states may have been neutralised by Chouhan’s Ladli Behna Yojana
The strike rate of polling agencies in 2018 left was poor. Except for Rajasthan, where the revolving door tradition makes it easy for pollsters, more agencies were wide off the mark than correct in MP, Telangana and Chhattisgarh. The last two states witnessed landslides, which few agencies got right
The BJP remained esctatic over the polls predicting it to retain power. It's leaders have largely pinned their hopes on a host of welfare schemes targeted at the poorest sections of society.