show in iowa, her the reason for her going into south carolina, people are going to say, well, maybe not so much. evan, does elizabeth warren need a good showing in iowa? because as i see it she likely won t win new hampshire. she s not polling very well there. or south carolina. i think it s a long shot for her. so isn t that kind of an important spot for her? well, warren s banking on a strong showing in iowa. hopefully something with the bleedover from massachusetts into new hampshire because no and then to go into nevada and really go out full force. she has been organizing on the ground there in a way that is very impressive. and i think she really is we say it s a three-person race. i think now the top tier isn t bernie sanders, i think he s below that. it s joe biden. hillary clinton narrowly defeated bernie sanders in iowa.
democratic strategist maria cardona, evan sigfried, republican strategist. the candidates have spent enormous amounts of money on iowa. cory booker and kamala harris have among the largest staffs in iowa. just there week, a reporter overheard kamala harris say i am effing moving to iowa in october. how important is that state for kamala harris? i think for her, it s very important. and i think the importance depends on where you are in your campaign vis-a-vis your other competitors as you go into iowa, right. if you are one of the top-tier candidates, perhaps iowa isn t that important because you have other options. you have other paths, right. if you are at the bottom and you don t make a showing in iowa, then pretty much a lot of people are going to assume that s the end of your campaign. she ll have south carolina yes, she will. where she could do well. correct. okay. but i think if she doesn t
a completely change of mind if they go into it there s something about with the narrative that they ve heard on television, right. it does turn when you see her in person. and that is a critically important aspect of her campaign. evan, before we go, polls can also mean you don t get into the next debate. that seems maybe to have a little outsidist influence on our political process. yes, it absolutely does have an influence on it. but also i think the voters have an influence on it, where you can see it at the rallies. you saw it with bill de blasio, there was nobody showing up to his, and he didn t get into the last debate and obviously dropped out. you see cory booker, he is struggling right now. he is in the flex debate, but it s tough. you two, stay right there. we ll come back and talk about some other things, shakeups in the democratic field. joe biden, though, says the president is targeting him with false accusations because he knows, quote, he ll beat him like a
here to discuss are strategist maria cardona, republican strategist evan sigfried. maria, the polls are snapshots, and no one poll certainly should tell the story today. absolutely. but they can also send some warning signals. and warren is climbing. but support for her is softer when it comes to her electability. uh-huh. she s also relatively weak among white, non-college, working class voters in her own state. right. which might be a bad omen in important states in the midwest. sure. is she doing as well as it seems, or should she be monitoring some weaknesses? i think she should be monitoring looking at the weaknesses. i think she should assume she s not doing as well as the polls. that s always a better place to be than to assume you re doing great and take things for granted. because that is where you re going to get into a lot of trouble. right. the good thing, it is still very early. you know, one thing you said in the intro i think is critical. she is ri
african-american voters. and as you ll recall at the beginning, that s where everybody was saying, oh, she doesn t have any can t get it. she can t get it. look at what she s doing. while they should always take this with a grain of salt and make sure that they are not taking anything for granted, what you do look at is not one poll or two polls but you look at the trend. right. her trend is exactly what you want to be right now. evan, on the other side, trump s polls aren t great. however, his job approval rating this week according to a real clear politics average is just a shade, less than a point, higher than obama s at this time in his presidency. and some pollsters say respondents are still reluctant to admit their support for trump. could he be doing better than his opponents think? well, i think some poemsters right now pollsters right now are trying to protect themselves. in 2016, nationally they got it right. at the state and local level they got it wrong, did