we go later on into the afternoon. could be supporting winds of maybe 80 miles an hour? at least that s the forecast. so all these regions from florida to georgia, south carolina, north carolina are under states of emergency. flooding is still a high potential here. you will probably lose power in a lot of these coastal areas. look how some of these stronger bands are expected to move onshore. already we re seeing a very large tornado watch, which goes into 6:00 a.m. across a good portion of western areas of the florida peninsula. up here in this big bend area, it s going to be a monster, because this is very low-lying areas. i looked at the elevations. maybe 5 feet, maybe 10 feet. but the storm surge could be 12 to 16 feet. it is unsurvivable if you re caught in something like that.
populated region of florida. it has supporting winds right now at 120 miles per hour. just 130 miles per hour makes ate category 4 hurricane. the national hurricane center has been saying this is going to increase in intensity and become a category 4 right before landfall because water temperature here is very conducive for further development. so category 3 now is less than 100 miles now away from cedar key. but as i mentioned, this is where we are seeing fishing lodges, lots of recreational activity that takes place here. not like the more densely populated areas around tampa, sat. pete, coral gables, florid. but watch what happens here. we go through time. category 4 somewhere in this east central panhandle of florida. and then right along the border between georgia and south carolina, still a category 1 as
taking time to get through. to your point about the tornado warning, seeing more active radar with three active warnings with the bands onshore and with the forward speed of this storm, i think the rain bands will wrap up up across northeastern florida, georgia and carolinas and severe weather threat continuing to push northeast, where we re monitoring landfall. and jane, that is important to point out. think about the best analogy is an ice skater, they pull their arm and tighten their spin, that is what this storm will be doing. forward motion increases and bands tighten up and you get more intense winds in the tropical bands. having forward motion pick up, it will be forward hit and it will impact inland areas,
but we see wind reports here out of clearwater, st. pete, tampa, naples, cedar key. they re 45 to about 60 miles per hour. that doesn t really speak of the whole story. it s the storm surge, deadly. the number one deadly aspect of a hurricane, a category 4 with a storm surge of 8 feet, 10 feet, 12, 15 is unimaginable. this should probably make landfall probably around 8:00 or 9:00 in the morning. my colleague, meteorologist allison chinchar will be here at the top of the hour to continue to update you throughout the day. here we go. and then by wednesday evening, could it still possibly be at hurricane strength in south georgia, or right along the border with south carolina and georgia? certainly it can. and the projection is that it will. under a state of emergency, north carolina, south carolina, georgia and florida.
look at ian areas that will get a taste of the highest winds. tropical systems are stronger than tropical storms, last one they had was andrea and peak wind was 45 to 50, gainesville probably had wind gusts stronger than that. it is interesting because a lot of inland location, talk about benchmark of storms, many inland locations are nontropical storms. idalia may change that from north florida to georgia. it will be a hurricane when it crosses the florida/georgia line. that is a big deal to see it extend further inland is game-changer and more areas will get a taste of strong wind.