dole in 1988. donald trump 28-point lead is much bigger than that. if there is a surprise, it is in the race for second place, for nikki haley and ron desantis. they are separated by just a couple points. it is what you ve been showing. ali was mentioning, those enthusiasm numbers could end up making it where, even though ron desantis is in third place, that more enthusiasts support could actually make up some ground on caucus night. we ll have to watch and see. i m curious, the temperatures, you ve got to take this into consideration, mark. it could factor into different outcomes than the polls your indicating right now. demographics like, look, the elderly. it won t be harder to coax them out of the nice warm toasty homes, or get them to the polls for tomorrow night. yeah. when you have a demographic breakdown in our poll, the most interesting one is about the party registration and affiliation, alex. ali was mentioning, those independent and democrats are
door to your car, you ll be okay. the trump team, by the way, is confident on this fact. they believe those supporters aren t just supporters of politicians, their supporters of a movement. they won t miss this for. anything that was donald trump was telling folks in a hastily scheduled on the town hall last night. take a listen to this. they re saying the trump voter has so much more spirit, dedication, they walk over atlas. trump voters are coming to vote. yeah, voters are i m hearing basically the same thing from trump caucus goers here. from the trump campaign, senior staff, they are all projecting confidence. what we see and that poll, the sky high enthusiasm numbers for their guy, they will turn their supporters into actual caucus goers, actual votes. when 7:00 rolls around tomorrow evening, alex. hank, thank you so much for all of that. we ll see if that prediction is true. let s go to nbc s dasha burns,
sniper former president trump still holding a commanding lead. two pulitzer prize upset tomorrow night. the favorable opinion, yours went from 59% in december 248 in this poll. why would that have gone down? you ve got a lot of commercials on tv against us. everybody saw us surgery then started hitting us. that is expected we know that s going to happen but outside the energy of the ground is good. the momentum is good. as long as we keep going up we are going up everybody else is s going down that s good. the same pole ever in the political world knows her the des moines register poll as a last barometer sometimes is spot on sometimes it s a little off. what she said about your enthusiasm numbers does not concern you? she calls it on the edge of draw dropping 61% are just mildly
the former president on to their turf. jim, i understand what the biden campaign s theory of case, and you detail it quite well, as well, in terms of people come home, it will become clear that trump is running again. what happens if that doesn t happen? well, then, you know, then they need to reassess their campaign strategy. but i think it s likely to happen. and look, you ll know as things move forward, you will have lots of senses about this. when you run a presidential campaign, don t look at the poll numbers. you look at enthusiasm numbers and are the voters enthusiastic, what are they doing to be helpful to you, are they volunteering, giving money. there will be lots of signposts and you can start to, you know, adjust. you also can bring in very trusted democrats like barack obama, like michelle obama, the most popular political figure in america to start making that case to democratic voters as well. and i think you will see that.
will be busy would be enthusiastic if she were to apathetically replace biden as parties nominee. monster got there is warning signs for both parties and i want to talk on some of those. for biden they had a piece in the new york times that prison truck made modest gains along latino and black voters. midterm turn it was a press for democrats along black voters. likewise pointed out 538 young voters. this group, which was biden s best in a graphic, has now show the largest drop in support. and he has a base problem with about half of democrats saying we don t want this guy is our nominee. trump, you could argue legal money. if he is the nominee, you could argue legal proceedings, he could argue that so infirmities for both candidates. one thing that really jumps out at me when you look at these enthusiasm numbers, kaylee, is that that translates to donors go to small donors. it also translates to intensity and turnout. will a lot of these people stay home if they are not excited to g