trump. in fact, the dramatic effect of their cheesy prequel was blunted days before the vote when trump announced the successful and daring special forces mission to take out isis leader baghdadi then it was six days later the week ended with blockbuster economic numbers. nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 jobs in october. solidly beating expectations. black unemployment rate. another historic low. 5.4%. these are potentially game changing employment reports. laura: today the stock market, meaning your 401(k) and pensions kept climbing hitting records across all indices. excellent news. even pockets of pop culture seemed to be coming around to trump. for years the president has gotten this kind of stiff-arm from celebrity athletes but today when he hosted the world
was we forgot, we re in the middle of polar vortex. i just got out of it for the last two days in chicago. it was colder than antarctica. everything was shut down. it is not going to show up in any employment reports. it wasn t the survey week. the week of the vinita nair was an unusually warm week and that s why you have strong construction data in this number. the unseasonably adjusted data fell. those are important things to understand about what happened as well as there is a lot of mixed messages and a lot of noise in this particular report. at the end of the day, take 100,000 off, take 150,000 off. it s still a good report. still a good report. let me ask about revisions. that s another thing people ask about. the report revised december very big gains of 312,000 jobs, down to, as you said, 222,000, which is good. what do we need to know about revisions? revisions come in, again, as more data comes in, they try to get there is this balance between getting the speed and th
anything, neil, it is to disabuse them of the notion that you can tell with i way the market s going by following fundamentals, in fact, if there is a correlation, it would be a negative correlation. the better the fundamentals get, the closer you are to a market top. the worse the fundamentals get, the closer you are to a market bottom. remember, the employment reports that we ve seen now are the best in 40 years. 40 years, neil, and what that tells you is maybe you should be looking for a one of the most important tops in 40 years, perhaps that s what you should be looking at. neil: what technically is unsettling you. give me two things you re watching that are going to produce this hit that i think takes the dow eventually to 16,000, maybe lower? okay. as you know, back in november we spoke about the sign of the bear. quickly, that pattern, especially in a market that continues to rise week after week, when you start seeing a narrowing of the advances and
the monetary policy. where i would agree with the critics and i ve been a very strong critic myself is that i believe we would be doing much better if more of the spur to economic growth was coming from the side of government spending or tax reduction, rather than relying on the monetary and liquidity tools to the extent we have, but that, of course, is not within the power of the federal reserve. do you believe that the u.s. is going to grow is going to surprise on the upside as they say in market lingo, the growth will be this year probably a little stronger than the consens consensus? i m not sure. i think the consensus has come down a bit in the last few weeks. i probably would have said that two months ago, fareed, but now i think after too soft employment reports, after a
will be this year probably a little stronger than the consensus? i m not sure. i think the consensus has come down a bit in the last few weeks. i probably would have said that two months ago, fareed, but now i think after too soft employment reports, after a sense that there s been a big inventory buildup that has that will get run down and that will come at the expense of gdp, i think that actually the statistics right now and the people who base their judgments on the statistics, are actually a little more optimistic right now than the business folk i talk to who have order books, who are still fairly nervous. so i would i would say around the consensus forecast of about 3% the risks are pretty