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Calculating GDP is usually relatively uncomplicated. The total amount of household consumption of goods and services is summed with corporate investments, government disbursals, and total nationwide exports and imports during a given period. By knowing how the economy has behaved previously and the trajectory of primary economic variables such as interest and foreign exchange rates, the performance of principal trading partners, and current prices of exports, among other factors, it is possible to predict the country’s production and consumption over subsequent months and years. The same predictability isn’t possible when economic activity is suspended. “Usually, in major crises, the drop in demand goes to 4% or 5%. In this crisis, there are people talking about 40% or 70%. There’s no parallel. The level of uncertainty for any forecast this year is enormous,” says José Ronaldo de Castro Souza Júnior, director of Macroeconomic Studies and Research at the Institute of Appl

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