tammy baldwin was down by 9 points. a month ago the same poll showed her down 6 points. in connecticut senate race chris murphy leads linda mcmahon. in massachusetts, a race we ll talk about, elizabeth warren had the lead over scott brown in four over five polls. nate silver who forecasts the down ballot races and his 538 blog for the new york times wrote on thursday, the democrats chances of controlling the senate have increased to 79 percent ners in the forecast up from 70% on tuesday. had we run the model a month ago based on polls from august 19th, the democrats chances of maintaining senate control would have been listed at just 39%. in the house the democrats still have an uphill battle to win back the house. the average at the polls is they have an advantage on the generic
has been health. there hasn t been a lot of outside money. this has seemed to be nationalized without the help of karl rove s help or move on s help or anything. that s interesting. i think that s one thing that s happened. the second thing had a has happened is elizabeth warren has found her feet as a political candidate. i think it started at the convention. you saw it a little bit in the debate. my biggest part of the debate was it was a battle of two people who were completely overprepared. scott brown was overprepared to be a belligerent jack ass and elizabeth warren the same. you had a couple of magnets with reverse polarity. they talked past each other. they didn t really engage. i think basically you had, you know, setup for the next three debates. the other thing that s going on here in terms of nationalizing the race is scott brown would rather admit that he s voting for kotos than admit he s a
the extremism of the party. it makes republicans look like they re anti-women. i don t want to say republicans are anti-women but i think women look at that. i agree with that. the question is why in the last month? the question is that s been the case. they ve been passing that. something is happening in the last month. there s one argument is the todd akin had a branding effect and reminded people of the stuff that had been going on. a couple of things about that. i think it s a myth that pennsylvania is a swing state. if you go back and look, it s just not a swing state. it hasn t been for a while. virginia. i think you re right about akin poisoning the whole republican brand. he is a good reminder of what people don t like about the republican party. keep this in mind, you re talking about nationalizing the race. i ve been covering elizabeth warren. i don t think she has any choice. if you ve ever seen her speak, she knows not the first thing about massachusetts. her wo
republican. he can t find it in his literature. you can t find it on his commercials. he won t say whether or not he endorses the primary candidate. what do you want him to do, charlie, he s running in massachusetts. no, no, no, the way we say up here, for pete s sake, i m running for office. for pete s sake, you re running for office. you twloet piece about how overprepared they were and i thought it was spot on because i watched part of the debate and as a host of a conversation show that sometimes has debates, it was sort of a train wreck because they were overprepared. when people come on this show and they have lots of notes and they re reading off, it s he like, no, no, no, actually talk to me. hang on, chris, i m going to hide my league example. the one thing i found useful about the debate was i had totally forgotten what elizabeth warren s job was. what profession is elizabeth warren. scott brown nicely took a little
elizabeth warren, his opponent, who is the brainchild behind the consumer finance protection bureau, she was in the dodd frank legislation. she oversought t.a.r.p. she wrote an amazing book about middle american income. she was a bankruptcy professor at harvard law. this is a big race. there s a lot of money, a lot of national attention. elizabeth warren had been polling down basically the whole race so far. scott brown is a very good politician, very able, incredibly relatable. had a a genuinely amazing story. his memoir is incredible. i would recommend it to anyone. the guy has an incredible personal forry. very effective politician. even though barack obama was up 22 points in massachusetts, that has really, it seems, shifted in the last two weeks. we ve seen poll after poll after poll with elizabeth warren up. there s been a definite shift in