Posted: 28 Apr 2021 12:22 PM PDT
As of yesterday’s close, S&P 500 was up 11.5% year-to-date. Provided these gains hold through the end of April, this year will be just the seventeenth time since 1950 that the S&P 500 has finished the first four months of the year with a gain exceeding 10%. The best January to April span occurred in 1975, up 27.3% (S&P 500 was in the early stages of a new bull market following the bear ending 10/3/1974 in which the S&P 500 declined 48.2%). The next best year was, 1987 (most will remember what happened later that year) and the most recent year was 2019 (a solid year from beginning to end).
Correlation = Causation 3 minutes read
Weekly, an NFL announcer will announce that
Kicker A has not missed a field goal under 40
yards since the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. The spirit of the comment is to inspire warm-fuzzies in the gut of the viewer or to statistically uplift the supremacy of the man lining up for the field goal. Then, the kicker whiffs it, and his streak in ceremoniously kaput. The commentator and his pal giggle while one says, “Why’d you even say that, Marv?” You – on the sofa – know why it
happened.
Kicker A was jinxed. Clear as day. Like Ron Burgundy said, “It’s science.”