there is some reason for walker to be hopeful in these early numbers. the electorate and the runoff early electric screws owes or, even older than it did in the mid term general election runoff about 70% of voters are 50 and up. we know from polling that herschel walker has an edge with that group. now, big picture, yasmin, two things are well understood. warnock is going to win the early vote. herschel walker is going to win the election day vote in two days. the big question, this is walker going to win that election day vote by and mitt to make up for this big margin, significantly that democrats appear to be building now in the early vote. sahel couple or, has always, we appreciate you. i want to talk through a couple different things if we can, maya. you talk specifically about how difficult this decision is and how difficult this race, as specifically for black voters in the state of georgia. you write this, nearly 2000 people have surged in the u.s. senate. only 11th of them h
election day ballots. d late earlies are ballots in an envelope delivered on election day. the ranges vary from state to state. but if it was an envelope, democrats did very well there. you heard kyung say the masters campaign thinks their path is in those. they re dropped on election day. the election day vote has traditionally been more republican. we had to go through this in 2020. here we go in 2022. it s a new age of voting. mail-in voting was picking up steam anyway, then we have the covid. senator ahead by state-wide right now. 52% to 46%. i want to go back to a bid earlier when we had constance hargrove on for pima county. joe biden carried it by 19 points there. we got about 14,000 votes from her then live on tv. since then they ve released about 10,000 more. this includes them all. david was noting the percentage
we may. i do want to explain sort of what we re seeing broken out by method of vote in arizona right now. so if you look here, among the mail vote, mark kelly, the democratic incumbent has an 18.3% lead in that vote. among the election day vote, blake masters has a 40.1% vote. let me show you what we know about what is left uncounted. 38.7% of the mail vote is left uncounted right now. and that is a kelly advantage group perhaps i m going to explain that in one second. there s almost no election-day vote left. while this is a big category for blake masters, only 1% remains to be counted. here is the catch that i want folks to understand. late arriving mail, even though it s mail vote, may be politically different than the early arriving mail. we saw this happen in 2020.
early voting, mail-in voting. washington state, for example, went to that years ago. but in most of the country, early and mail-in voting was just starting to get traction and spreading in popularity, and then covid hit. and so now we re going through it again. so david makes a key point. we can look at what happened in 2020. if you just looked at that, then mark kelly is going to hold this lead. the late earlies, are those republicans who traditionally vote on election day who said i don t want to vote in a line? so here s my ballot, i m going to mail it at the last second. is that an election day vote or is that an early vote? are we going to redefine this over the next five, ten years as this character of voting and how people vote changes. it s confusing. so we need to be patient. we need to count and we need to trust the officials who did a very good job in arizona two years ago, it took a while. nevada took even longer so we re in two states that took a while in 2020, and we re d
and it was just maddening. wasn t the same day vote, steve, slightly more democratic this year than it usually is? or did i get that wrong, the election day vote. in some places. in arizona, though, you can see the effect that it had because, again, the early vote was a smaller share, and so it was the kelly lead coming out of maricopa county from the initial batch on election night was larger than it had typically been, than it had been in 2020. so the republicans shaved a lot off of that, you know, with the same day vote. so we re still seeing, i think, a very similar split in arizona and nevada to what we saw in 2020 with that x factor of how you determine, how you, you know, interpret that same day dropoff. and finally, katy perry fans want to know who won the mayor s race in l.a., still too close to