President Vladimir Putin s Annual Address to the Federal Assembly on April 21 will go down as one of the most significant developments in recent history. He has drawn a red line in the sand that he does not want the West to cross. This will fundamentally change the rules of engagement between Russia and the West. The West can no longer unfairly blame Russia, humiliate it or provoke it without risking grave consequences.
The West has followed a policy of gradually nibbling at the area of Russian influence, and trying to encircle, contain and isolate Russia without risking a direct confrontation with Russia. This policy is based upon calculated and measured risks and predictable and proportionate responses. Putin, in one stroke, changed the rules of the game. Russia has gone on the offensive. If Russia perceives a threat to its security, then it will decide what should be the response. This response can be completely unpredictable and un-proportional as far as the West is concerned.