Australia NAB Business Confidence improved slightly form 0 to 1 in January. Despite this marginal improvement, Business Conditions dropped from 8 to 6, with notable decreases in trading conditions from 11 to 8, profitability conditions from 7 to 5, and employment conditions also falling from 7 to 5.
On the contrary, Dollar stands out as the day's strongest performer for now, with the financial markets on edge for the upcoming US CPI data release. Analysts are forecasting deceleration in headline CPI from 3.4% to 2.9% in January, alongside minor decrease in core CPI from 3.9% to 3.8%.
Dollar rises significantly in early US session supported by the latest consumer inflation data, which also triggers a marked in DOW futures, dropping by over -300 points. Concurrently, 10-year Treasury yield is soaring near 4.3% mark. Most critically, the inflation data revealed that core CPI remained unchanged at 3.9% in January. This stagnation in core CPI previously at 4% just three months ago and 4.3% six months back sparked debates on whether disinflationary trends are stalling. This development would likely delaying any immediate Fed rate cut. Now, the May timeline for initiating rate reductions appears increasingly doubtful.
Australia NAB Business Confidence fell rose from -8 to -1 in December. However, Business Conditions fell from 9 to 7. The decline was observed across several key areas: Trading conditions dropped from 13 to 10, while Employment conditions also decreased slightly from 8 to 7. Profitability conditions remained steady at 6.
Yen weakened momentarily after BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, but swiftly regained stability. This quick recovery underscores the market's assessment that the conditions for a BoJ rate hike in April remain intact. This viewpoint is bolstered by unchanged CPI core-core forecast, which holds steady at 1.9% for the upcoming two fiscal years. However, BoJ refrained from offering any immediate signals for such a policy shift. The decision on whether to raise interest rates will depend heavily on the outcomes of the Spring wages negotiations, especially in terms of the breadth of wage growth. Given these circumstances, Yen still faces potential downside risks in the near term.