January Temperatures Looking ‘Solidly Warm’ as Natural Gas Futures Plummet
Natural gas futures were down sharply in early trading Monday as forecasters highlighted major warming trends from weather models over the holiday weekend showing mild temperatures well into January.
As of around 8:50 a.m. ET, the January Nymex contract had plummeted 26.3 cents to $2.255/MMBtu. February was down 22.8 cents to $2.284.
Models over the weekend shifted toward a stronger positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation and a weaker North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), signaling more warmth, according to Bespoke Weather Services.
The changes “resulted in a massive decrease” in the firm’s forecasted gas-weighted degree days (GWDD), “as the next two weeks alone look to be 25-35 GWDD warmer, or roughly 60-70 Bcf,” Bespoke said. “…Perhaps the back half of January can at least get back toward normal, but the first half now looks very solidly warm.”
The natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending December 11th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US had decreased by 122 billion cubic feet to 3,726 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our gas supplies 284 billion cubic feet, or still 8.3% higher than the 3,442 billion cubic feet that were in storage on December 11th of last year, and 243 billion cubic feet, or 7.0% above the five-year average of 3,483 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 11th of December in recent years..the 122 billion cubic feet that were drawn out of US natural gas storage this week was less than the average forecast from an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts who had expected a 127 billion cubic foot withdrawal, but was higher than the average withdrawal of 105 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have typically been pulled out of natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years, and the
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Natural gas futures bounced back midweek as the warmer forecast expected this month may be less intense than advertised. A tight supply/demand backdrop added support, lifting the January Nymex contract up 4.3 cents Wednesday to $2.442. February climbed 3.4 cents to $2.456.
Spot gas prices strengthened, but gains were fairly small across most of the country.
NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 7.5 cents to $2.460.
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