Written by Steven HansenThe advance estimate for the first-quarter 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a positive 6.4 %. This growth is an improvement from the previous quarter s growth of 4.3 % if one looks at quarter-over-quarter headline growth. The year-over-year rate of growth also significantly improved and is now in expansion.
The latest
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index s headline number improved again in April. The Index now stands at 121.7 (1985=100), up from 109.0 in March. A quote from the Conference Board:
. Consumers assessment of current conditions improved significantly in April, suggesting the economic recovery strengthened further in early Q2 .
Analyst Opinion of Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence had been steady for the previous two years - but the coronavirus killed the upswing. Consumer confidence during the pandemic was as low as seen in 2014 - but now has improved to nearly pre-pandemic levels.
The consensus range from Econoday was 108.0 to 115.0 (consensus 112.0). This month s index is based on data collected through 16 April 2021.
Preliminary April 2021 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April came in at 86.5, up from March s 84.9, up from February s 76.8, and up from January s 79.0.
The Econoday consensus range was 88.1 to 92.5 (consensus 89.0)
Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments:
Consumers in early April reported surging economic growth and strong job gains due to record stimulus spending, low interest rates, and the positive impact of vaccinations. The Sentiment Index rose to its best level in a year on the strength of recent gains in current economic conditions, while future economic prospects remained unchanged from March. This is opposite of the usual pattern over the past fifty years, when recoveries were paced by larger and earlier gains in expectations. The strength in current economic conditions reflects much larger than usual stimulus payments during the past year, and much larger than
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As a generalization - inflation accelerates as the economy heats up, while the inflation rate falling could be an indicator that the economy is cooling. However, inflation does not correlate well to the economy - and cannot be used as an economic indicator.
Gasoline was the major influence on the CPI:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 6.4 percent in February and accounting for over half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The electricity and natural gas indexes also increased, and the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.2 percent in February, with the index for food at home and the index for food a
Written by Steven HansenAccording to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4 % year-over-year (unchanged from the reported 1.4 % last month). The year-over-year core inflation (excludes energy and food) rate improved from 1.6 % to 1.4 %.