digits. if you average everything together that s out there now, newsom s side, keep newsom as governor, now with a double digit lead on average in the race. couple things have changed the last couple of weeks. democrats paid a lot more attention, you are talking about that. there s been more media coverage. and also, every voter in california got a ballot. california does something a lot of states don t do, not just that they have mail voting, they automatically send out mail ballots to every voter in the state. that might have gotten attention from people, too. democrats hope the newsom folks have that strong partisan lean in the state kicks in. a week out, double digit advantage for newsom. by the way, we have one modern point of comparison. the recall in 2003, gray davis, he was recalled, schwarzenegger became the governor. a week out in 2003 the recall side was leading on average by 12 points. so the recall side was leading a
all plays out, but it s certainly going to be a major sort of political tension point in this race. and, of course, alex, democrats are trying to weigh the whole electability against the sitting president, and no fox news polling shows that biden has a double digit advantage over president trump in a head-to-head race. so what is it that democratic voters are weighing heavily? i mean, i think democratic voters don t want to pick the wrong person. and, you know, i think voters will look at these polls there is this thing where you have pundit voters who are looking closely and trying to determine, gain this out. but we have to remember this is a year away from the election, and while joe biden is certainly the most dominant against trump, other candidates like elizabeth warren, like bernie sanders, have been really competitive as well. this conversation about the medicare for all plan sort of goes to the heart of the
still leads, but running in this poll 22% and we have talked about an age divide on the democratic side, over 50 years old, under 50 years old. check this out. democrats over 50, this is what we re used to seeing. biden in first place, double digit advantage, solid lead for bierd e biden. under 50 years old, not only is joe biden not in first place, he is back at 6%. tied with andrew yang among democrats under 50 years old at 6%. for biden, not getting what he normally gets from moderates and conservatives. age wise, used to seeing him not do well with folks under 50. the floor is falling out from at least this polling. you lump together the ideological groupings, bernie
this is where i think it gets particularly tricky and key. the question of enthusiasm. which side is more enthusiastic? the story for so much of 2018 and 2017 was in inbalance. we saw it in the polls in august. democrats an 11-point enthusiasm edge. people saying they were interested in voting this november. now in our new poll, that 11 point edge see what happened. democrat the their enthusiasm has gone up but republicans it s going up by a larger share there. now democrats with only a 4 point edge. down from 11 when it comes to enthusiasm. this is interesting. take a look at the last three midterm elections that produced wave results. 2014 for the republicans. 2010 for the republicans. twix for the democrats. what do they have in common? at this point, in our poll, on the enthusiasm question there was a double digit advantage in all three of those races for the party that ended up having the wave election.
them a fighting chance at keeping the house. this is where i think it gets particularly tricky and key. the question of enthusiasm. which side is more enthusiastic? the story for so much of 2018 and 2017 was in inbalance. we saw it in the polls in august. democrats an 11-point enthusiasm edge. people saying they were interested in voting this november. now in our new poll, that 11 point edge see what happened. democrat the their enthusiasm has gone up but republicans it s going up by a larger share there. now democrats with only a 4 point edge. down from 11 when it comes to enthusiasm. this is interesting. take a look at the last three midterm elections that produced wave results. 2014 for the republicans. 2010 for the republicans. twix for the democrats. what do they have in common? at this point, in our poll, on the enthusiasm question there was a double digit advantage in all three of those races for the