Shot. That means a 30 chance. Marco rubio or jeb bush or right . Yeah, a little more. Donald trump. The most decisive victories in about 37 chance. The last 35 years have been with oh, im sorry. And then donald trump is a 94 diehard conservatives, Ronald Reagan and george w. Bush. Shot, followed by ted cruz, and they say what the party then people can see at home the nominates more establishment types like bob dole or john remaining competitors. Heres my question. Mccain, mitt romney, those are those odds determined by the candidates lose. And it sounds compelling. Wagering . In other words, does the market but theres an alternate set the relative wager, or is history. One that begins not with reagan, but with the drubbing that a that you and others sitting back very conservative, barry and saying, heres the way we think its going to go . Goldwater took in 1964. Well, we start off, you know, this school of thought says that today, even reagan himself setting the market, as we feel it s
August and sipt, but the order was reversed from this year in 2008, the democrats went first. Democrats held their big nominating convention for barack obama and joe biden in denver. You might remember it culminated with that big speech in that huge arena in denver where barack obama spoke on than set with the big theatrical columns. It was very dramatic. The republicans that year in 2008, they made a Bold Decision that they would take advantage of the fact that the democrats were going first and they would take advantage of the fact that the conventions were so late that year. So the momentum coming out of the conventions was going to be really important for the general election. Because of those two factors they decided to do something very bold. They decided in 2008 that one day after the Democratic Convention was over, the very next day, john mccain would name his Vice President ial running mate. They didnt name the person who was going to run with mccain till after the democrats h
They say what the party nominates more establishment types, like bob dole or john mccain, mitt romney, those candidates lose. And it sounds compelling. But theres an alternate history. One that begins not with reagan, but with the drubbing that a very conservative, Barry Goldwater took in 1964. This school of thought says that today, even reagan himself couldnt get nominated in a party dominated by Tea Party Freedom caucus types. Mccain, romney, they didnt lose because they were insufficiently conservative. But because of the contortions that were demanded of them by evangelical christians and other social conservatives in primary and caucus season. Maybe if romney had run as the reasonable republican who governed the bluest state in the nation, instead of as i severe conservative, he could have beaten obama. Instead, his many flip flops made him damaged goods in the general. So whats the answer . Probably that no experiment will finally settle the debate, because neither side would ac
And every cycle its done a little differently. In 2008, not only were the conventions much later that year, they didnt happen till it august and september, but the order was reversed from this year in 2008, the democrats went first. Democrats held their big nominating convention for barack obama and joe biden in denver. You might remember it culminated with that big speech in that huge arena in denver where barack obama spoke on than set with the big theatrical columns. It was very dramatic. The republicans that year in 2008, they made a Bold Decision that they would take advantage of the fact that the democrats were going first and they would take advantage of the fact that the conventions were so late that year. So the momentum coming out of the conventions was going to be really important for the general election. Because of those two factors they decided to do something very bold. They decided in 2008 that one day after the Democratic Convention was over, the very next day, john mc
It was very dramatic. The republicans that year in 2008, they made a Bold Decision that they would take advantage of the fact that the democrats were going first and they would take advantage of the fact that the conventions were so late that year. So the momentum coming out of the conventions was going to be really important for the general election. Because of those two factors they decided to do something very bold. They decided in 2008 that one day after the Democratic Convention was over, the very next day, john mccain would name his Vice President ial running mate. They didnt name the person who was going to run with mccain till after the democrats had their convention. Its kinds of a genius move. It meant the biggesting move who john mccain was going to pick as his running mate was this is distracting parlor game that everybody was nattering about all through the Democratic Convention when they should have been talking about barack obama and joe biden. It also met when john mcca