As attendees head home from the MBA’s IMB in New Orleans, plenty will be eating airplane chow. Maybe you should buy vittles on the ground instead. Given the breezy weather in New Orleans, leather jackets are out in force. Those in attendance are talking about several good things that happened in 2023, impacting mortgage rates and lenders. Inflation has come down, hourly wages outpaced inflation the last seven months of the year, we didn’t have a recession or a banking crisis that some “experts” expected. In fact, the S&P 500 was up 23 percent, and the economy grew a decent 2.6 percent. Credit costs and trigger leads are a big item; today’s L1 Mortgage Matters session at 2PM ET features John Fleming, of John Fleming Law and the Texas MBA, and a good update on the trigger lead situation. Basel III is a concern; as MBA President Bob Broeksmit points out, no bank has ever failed due to servicing requirements, and we should guard against non-se
“What do you call James Bond having a bath? Bubble 07.” In different bond matters, mortgage rates will always be higher than Treasury rates, in part because of the prepayment risk in mortgages that doesn’t exist with Treasury bonds. With the drop in rates, sales management personnel at lenders are busy figuring out how best to remind the staff about EPO (early payoff) penalties levied by investors while at the same time working on ways to save money besides furloughing, cutting staff, outsourcing, and re-doing vendor contracts. The recent decline in rates and increase in applications is welcome: According to Curinos, November 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 11 percent YoY and 10 percent MoM. In the Retail channel, funded volume was down 22 percent YoY and 10% MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in November was 7.45 percent, 25bps higher than October and 85bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant
Time flies (see joke at bottom), and here we are at Pearl Harbor Day already. “I'm a multitasker. I can listen, ignore, and forget all at the same time!” Occasionally someone will accuse me of having a sense of humor. If true, it can be traced back to my parents, but a portion of it came from watching Norman Lear’s shows like All in the Family, Sanford and Son, Maude, The Jeffersons, and movies like The Princess Bride (“as you wish”). Mr. Lear died yesterday, but his impact will be long felt. Audiences loved his shows. Does your customer love you, no matter the price? That’s the case with Coke. The average price of a 12-ounce can of Diet Coke in a package of 12 was 34 cents in 2018 but hit 56 cents per can in October 2023, a 65 percent increase. In general, Diet or regular, prices have shot up: The average price of a Diet Coke at a restaurant hopped up from $2.05 to $2.77. Inflation at many levels is impacting rates, including Treasury