Would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value in home price from their local market peak to where they are at present the case sowler composite and San Francisco is halfway through the pack there down to about 33 and so whole values are still off from where they were before but if you look at where we are from the low point until where we are today, Sa
Bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value in home price from their local market peak to where they are at present the case sowler composite and San Francisco is halfway through the pack there down to about 33 and so whole values are still off from where they were before but if you look at where we are from the low point until where we are today, San Francisco is looking a little bit better and oakland is not a member city and they randomly take 20 cities that are pl
Dan class man some 14 year ago really came up with this idea, we sat down over lunch and there was another person involved allen cline knelt and which came up with this idea and so i have to give dan much much credit for that. applause . Very much so. And in 2012, cornish and carey, dominated the area of commercial real estate with over 6 billion in leasing and Sales Transactions so very good there. And you are soon going to hear from dan and he is going to give us that a good look at sort off what real estate activity look like here in the bay area. So in addition, to cornish and carey new mark night frank, help me thank our generouses for bringing you this program they are Golden Gate University and ill tell you they prepare the most work ready profiles that professionals that you are going to find and we so much appreciate our partnership with Golden Gate University and thank the president dan angel for delivering those shining graduate to businesses throughout the bay area and if y
Various drivers of that and the first case is that residential construct construction is going to help and that is what got us into this mess so it may seem counterintuitive this is the most macro measure i can use to show the residential activity across the country and obviously this fell off the cliff during the recession and has not meaning fully retraced ground during that time period what might be useful is to think about if this is the demand for new homes what is the real im sorry the supply of new homes what is the demand for it how many new homes do we really need and nor to get a sense for that i look at this data series from the United States Census Bureau and this is house of information and if you are young couple getting a first house or an individual whos you know, living in school and getling their first detriment ask a forms the horizontal line going through there is the average from 1961 to 2,000 and leaves out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes
Out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes do we really need here and its one and a quarter million and so may be between one and a quart million and one andahalf million is where we aught to be and so now im going to backup and go to the previous slide and if this was penciled in here it would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value