number there. i think the most outstanding vote is right here, rensselaer county. take a look here, donald trump in 2016 one run slur by 16. that was cut to ten in 2020. you re looking at the early and absentee vote, that s all we have right now. the question is when we start getting the same day vote out of rensselaer county. how close is molinaro to getting to the trump level. can you get to the trump level? can he exceeded? ken ryan improve on joe biden s performance here? that might be the deciding question in the district here. where we look overall right now, just checking in again, that is a four 4.8 margin, 5400 votes, believed for ryan over molinaro, a little bit more to come here out of ulster and i think that rensselaer same day could end up being what decides this election. extremely close.
democrat pat ryan right now, you see the advantage over the republican mark molinaro. keep in mind, the way the vote counting is taking place here in new york is most of these counties are counting up the vote by mail and the early vote first that tends to be by far the much more democratic friendly type of vote. then what happens is they add in the same day vote, the vote that was cast today in person that tends to be a much more republican friendly vote. so we have been watching ryan has had the lead all night, you saw it happen again, molinaro has been creeping up as more votes have been coming in. but this seems to be, we will seem to be on a collision course, a very, very close race. to give you an example here of one county that is basically says, it says 80% but we believe based on what the county is showing us that this may be all of the vote. this is just give you an example of what we are seeing here. mueller or when this county 66 to 37%. compare that to the 2020
first that tends to be by far the much more democratic friendly type of vote. then what happens is they add in the same day vote, the vote that was cast today in person that tends to be a much more republican friendly vote. so we have been watching ryan has had the lead all night, you saw it happen again, molinaro has been creeping up as more votes have been coming in. but this seems to be, both seem to be on a collision course, a very, very close race. to give you an example here of one county that is basically says, it says 80% in but we believe based on what the county is showing us that this may be all of the vote. this is just to give you an example of what we are seeing here. molinaro wins this county 66 to 37%. compare that to the 2020 election results in this county. it is almost identical. trump won this county 63 to 34%. now, this district as a whole
dutchess county, dutchess county is the second biggest part of this district. molinaro is the county executive in dutchess county. so the two dynamics that we are watching as these final numbers start to come in we ll start here in dutchess county, malingerers base. you see molinaro now has opened up a lead here of about two and a half points over ryan. there are more votes to come, it is same-day votes that are being reported out here. mola nero has been winning the same day vote in dutchess county. this is where molinaro has made his biggest gain in the district just in terms of raw votes. biden carried the duchess county portion of this district in 2020. mola nero is on his way to carrying it tonight. so this is going to be just given the size of this county, it is about one sixth of the district in terms of the votes that it produces. so that swing, trump getting 47%, molino is at 51%. that could prime to 52 or 53. that is his biggest single game tonight probably, anywhere in thi
molinaro s base. you see molinaro now has opened up a lead here of about two and a half points over ryan. there are more votes to come, it is same-day votes that are being reported out here. molinaro has been winning the same day vote in dutchess county. this is where molinaro has made his biggest gain in the district just in terms of raw votes. biden carried the dutchess county portion of this district in 2020. molinaro is on his way to carrying it tonight. so this is going to be just given the size of this county, it is about one sixth of the district in terms of the votes that it produces. so that swing, trump getting 47%, molinaro is at 51%. that could climb to 52 or 53. that is his biggest single gain tonight probably, anywhere in this district over what donald trump did. if molinaro is able to win tonight, this will probably be why. that leaves the big remaining