The May USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, giving us the first glimpse of U.S. wheat production and row-crop balance sheets for the 2024-25 crop year, showed few major surprises in wheat or soybeans. But a reduction in ending stocks for corn in both crop years sent that market to solid gains. All-wheat production was modestly bullish with the production estimate falling 40 million bushels below trade expectations.
USDA s March 1 (2024) Prospective Planting and quarterly Grain Stocks reports threw a bullish curveball to traders with corn planting intentions much lower than trade expectations at just 90 million acres and 4.6 ma below that of a year ago. Soybean planting was about as traders had expected, and wheat was just a bit lower, but winter wheat acres were forecast to fall over 1 million acres below the average estimate, sending both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures to solid gains.
The week of June 11 will see weather systems turn active, commodity pundits discuss the potential merger of grain giants Viterra and Bunge and trade experts mull over the Canada and U.S. disagreement with Mexico over GMO grains. These are just some of the stories the DTNPF news team will watch the week of June 11.
The soybean market has been in a bullish trend, with March futures having rallied nearly $1.50 per bushel since mid-October. Driven by the best crushing margins in history, and first a dynamic rally in soybean oil, followed by an even more impressive and meteoric rise in soybean meal futures, soybeans have had little reason to fall. That may be about to change.
As wheat has melted down and corn export sales remain dismal, corn futures appear to have convincingly broken out to the downside after trading in a 30-cent range in the past 16 days. The next target for March appears to be the open chart gap at $6.38 with solid support just under that.