Maybe actually get something done hallelujah i got to tell you thats how i felt when i interviewed nancy pelosi, leader of the Democrat Party about how she looks at things for now you should know shes hoping for constructive dialogue between democrats, republicans, including the president which is something i pretty much had written off as impossible. [ buzzer ] now before i go into what i heard remember that despite todays sedate action, dow inching up 34 point, s p advancing 2. 6, nasdaq gaining 0. 40 we are on the cusp of an incredibly important fed meeting. The guys that keep buying on tech news like we got today. Im concerned about the fed meeting. If i were jay powell i might want to stick it to the president by saying, theres no need to cut Interest Rates we have plenty of job growth and the only possible slowdown is being caused by the trade war which is very much by design so why should the fed lift a finger to ameliorate the pain . The house of pain President Trump is out the
Numbers and while thats not exactly what we wanted, its what we need thats why stocks were able to rally on that news, the dow gaining 69 points higher most of the day and s p climbing. 09 and the nasdaq is tech heavy and does well when the economy is really slow dips 1. 7 . Why the heck are rerootiwe rootr weak data . Its about the macro ive never been a fan. Its a big picture when Interest Rates are much higher than the rest of the world and the world is reluctant to cut them. The macro matters and matters a lot. Thats why this disappointing payroll report is so important it gives jay powell more leeway to cut Interest Rates if he wants to powell is a traditionalest fed chief, for more than janet yellen thats why powell wants to be measured even though he was anything but measured with his rate hikes asemimet triric l and wrong. This is starting to hurt the economy. I lived through the 70s and understand the fear and if you dont stamp it out, it will wreck your economy this isnt the
Get you back to flat the question is a recession ahead . Ray dalia was on cnbc this morning with some of his odds. Take a listen. Recessions are always inevitable the only question is when. Do you see one coming yeah, i think that in the next two years, lets say prior to the next election, theres probably a 40 chance of a recession. And i think that youre seeing this around the world. You know, big discussion in the last hour, guys, about what is going into some of these recession models, why some of high yield spreads are not confirming them, whether theyre based around the yield spread or more a lot of companies in tech are starting to catch a cold plant materials which i did cover last night as promised the numbers werent that bad they werent far off of what was expected but their memory business is in this memory slump and people seem to get a bit skittish about that we had cisco talking about how the uncertainty is contributing to their cautious guidance the scary music is startin
After todays magnificent run the dow gaining and s p gaining and nasdaq 1. 5 maybe we shouldnt lend so much credence next time some indicator flashes red when tenyear treasuries were giving you it, experts came on the air and said a recession is insev inevitable and you should be afraid thats no way to make decisions about your money i explained over and over again you get a much better read by listeni ing to conference callsf individual Large Companies they said consumers are liable now look what happened yield curve on friday, if you took your queue from the panic and sold everything, you got burned thats the problem with following the big data an inverted yield curve may mean a recession but tell that to tens of thousands of people that shop at walmart every week the president gave walmart a shout out. Ups delivers hundreds of amazon boxes every day and tell it to the geeks at visa and mastercard or apple where the Service Revenue stream keeps growing the companies are seeing a sign
The nasdaq got spanked and slit 1. 6 but the average value 29 points in an it is passion of the upcoming rate cut, the first in ten years allow me to set the stage, on wednesday fed chief jay powell will give us the read on the economy and announce a quarter point rate cut to breathe now life into a business situation for many different industries. I know there will be sticklers that say with unemployment with the lowest level since the 1960s, it is ridiculous for the fed to think about cutting rates. Others like President Trump think a 25 basis cut isnt enough the president endlessly tweeted the Federal Reserve is way too tight monitory policy has been holding back the economy did it again today when your Interest Rates are too high, the currency gets stronger versus the rest of the world our rates are much higher so the dollar is very strong and makes the internationally Oriented Companies far less competitive and can hurt the Auto Industry and housing industry both of which are weak