outnumber republicans roughly 2-1. leading challenger right wing talk show host larry elder has already started laying groundwork to blame a loss if it happens on so-called election fraud. to get us situated before the starting line, the big board, steve kornacki is on duty. the nbc news decision disk has given us the following wording straight up, this race is technically too early to call, but no, the anti recall vote, is in the lead. we re going to get results from california. no means no recall. yes means yes recall gavin newsom. all 58 counties will start lighting up within next couple
trump got. right now it s level with what trump got and for napa, this is the lion s share of the vote, mailin votes that just came in. recall supporters want this number higher. only thing could change it, same day vote. votes cast today yet to be counted, there have to be a flood of pro recall votes we haven t seen in past elections. pattern we ve seen in san diego and napa, first two counties that come in, benchmark is not being met for recall supporters. let me ask, traditionally we re also very eager to see l.a. county and orange county, traditionally how fast do they report? los angeles county, 10
it s most friendly to democrats, the history on this. and numbers you see right away are rosy as they get for gavin newsom against the recall. that s probably going to be first hour or so here as counties start to come in. then they add up and release the votes cast same day, people went out to the polls today, cast ballots old-fashioned way. those will get added in, probably starting about an hour from now. going to start to get the same day vote added in there. that s going to be most republican friendly chunk out there. big number for the democrats right away, then republicans we got first results. san diego county, this is a biggie. show you this, second biggest county in the state. take you through what we got. san diego county. said it s a ton of votes. what we just got here, over
trump got 43.5%, recall is 48%. probably target here is about 60, maybe 59% or 60%. recall is better than trump did here. more support than other counties but it s got to dramatically outperform to have a chance. only outperforming him four points in mail-in votes. looking if anything else comes up here. question coming in, were we going to see anything in early returns that suggested polling heading up before election day or exit polling tonight, suggested those numbers were off? because they had newsom double digits ahead in this thing. nothing in nest counties i ve shown so far suggest that polling or exit polling was off in this. steve, let me ask you about
now, 31.5% might go to 35%, 36%. there s more republican counties in the area, curran county, we don t have numbers yet. shasta, where redding is, don t have number there s, could get number up into higher 30s, but big picture, brian, mail-in vote coming in county after county, seeing mail-in vote recall is nowhere near the targets it needs to be competitive statewide. early mail vote is totally consistent with exit poll that showed gavin newsom comfortably surviving the recall. it s consistent with the polling prior. the piece that remains to be seen, waiting for the alert. see the big counties i ve been taking you through, the same day