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what s your you must have a electoral vote count you figured out. i ll go with 318. i ll go with 322. to be clear, these were all electoral college votes we thought hillary clinton would get, we didn t even think about, trump, we were, of course, absolutely wrong, so was everyone else, so the question is why? harry anton is a senior political writer and analyst with 538 and nate cohn is a writer for the new york times up shot. so very simply, why were we wrong? well, i think the polls, that s the reason why. polls indicated hillary clinton was a favorite over donald trump but the thing we didn t articulate as well although i think our web site did a decent job was the uncertainty around that estimate so even if we had the mean estimate being 318, 312 and 322, the tail should have been considerably longer. the tail means the possibility of an outlier event? that s exactly right. but the first point you made is important to understand. not to get you off the hook but

Hillary clintonElectoral collegeI dont know what trumpChallenge questionNew york timesEveryone elseCup shotHarry antonNate cohnDonaldj trumpWeb siteOutlier event