India Inc s financial health, measured by the credit ratio of rating upgrades to downgrades, has moderated in the first half of the fiscal year, according to Crisil Ratings. The agency predicts a marginal further dip in the second half, although the credit ratio will remain above 1. The number of upgrades exceeded downgrades, but the latter is increasing due to challenges faced by export-linked sectors. Crisil expects a marginal moderation in the credit ratio in the second half.
The credit ratio - that is, the ratio of upgrade to downgrade - decreased sequentially to 1.67 in the first half of FY24 from 2.72 in the second half of FY23. The credit ratio, though, is slightly higher than its 10-year average of 1.54 and is expected to remain range bound, CareEdge said.
Will India Inc see rating downgrades on back of localised lockdowns?
Sectors that experienced a high downgrade rate in 2020-21 included hospitality, textiles, real estate, construction and automobile dealerships. These sectors have faced more downgrades in the past 6-12 months.
Synopsis
While no immediate rating downgrades could happen, a lot of companies in hospitality, retail, travel & tourism, commercial real estate and entertainment could see sharp downgrades.
MUMBAI: Rating companies will likely be busy the next few months as they assess the risk of the latest round of business curbs after a series of regulatory and judicial interventions swept many weaknesses under the carpet after the first round of lockdowns last year.