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Meeting of 21-22 July 2021
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Account Of The Monetary Policy Meeting Of The Governing Council Of The European Central Bank Held In Frankfurt am Main On Wednesday And Thursday, 21-22 July 2021
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The ECB’s dialogue with non-financial companies
Prepared by Catherine Elding, Richard Morris and Michal Slavik
As part of the process of gathering information on the outlook for economic activity and prices, the ECB maintains regular contacts with non‑financial companies. This gathering of business intelligence has become more structured over time and tends to be particularly valuable during exceptional periods, such as those resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Therefore, starting with this issue of the Economic Bulletin, the ECB will provide a summary of the main findings from its contacts with leading euro area businesses. This article explains how these interactions contribute to the ECB’s economic analysis and how they are organised and summarised. The main findings from the most recent exchanges with companies, which took place in early January 2021, are summarised in Box 1.
Date
The role of demand and supply factors in HICP inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic – a disaggregated perspective 0 / 0 x
Prepared by Derry O’Brien, Clémence Dumoncel and Eduardo Gonçalves
Introduction
The economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is not a standard textbook shock. Instead the shock is multidimensional, with sources on both the external and the domestic side, on both the demand and the supply side, and at both the aggregate and the sector-specific level. This poses challenges for the assessment of inflation. Established relationships between inflation and its determinants may not hold up or may not be scalable, given the magnitude of disturbances in product and labour markets. Moreover, the increasing emphasis of the inflation literature on distributions rather than point outcomes for future inflation is relevant for analysing the impact that the COVID-19 shock has had on inflation risks.