or not? reporter: no. they ve been clear about the fact, no foul play. no trauma here. they are trying to figure out whether this was somehow drug related or alcohol related or a drowning. it doesn t sound like it s a homicide investigation right now. they ve ruled out foul play. all right. jeff rossen, heads-up investigation for the today show. jeff, thank you for being up early this morning. up next, the state of play even before the republicans picked their nominee we assume they ll pick one, the presidential race is supposed to shape up as one of the most competitive we ve seen since 2000 and 2004. how much has the republican primary hurt the gop s chances against the president in the all-important electoral college? we ll take a look at the national battlefield state by state next with two of the best. plus, president obama s contraception compromise isn t quieting critics. the fight over birth control coverage is going to rage on.