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Nature s Communications Earth and Environment just published a paper by a group of researchers led by Damon Matthews in which they present a new framework for calculating the remaining carbon budget that is able to generate a much narrower estimate and its uncertainty.
The researchers estimate that between 230 and 440 billion more tonnes of CO2 from 2020 onwards can be emitted into the atmosphere and still provide a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.