French governments usually don’t hesitate to meddle in corporate affairs. The oil major’s refusal to sell its 19% stake in oligarch-controlled Novatek suggests uncharacteristic modesty from President Macron. Given the damage to France’s reputation, this doesn’t make sense.
Gazprom and Rosneft are repaying bonds despite fears Moscow may renege on its own debt. The depressed prices of Russian corporate debt mean investors who rightly bet on repayment can double their money. Yet rising tensions and murky workouts mean the trade will get riskier.
The U.S. and Europe could ban Russian crude imports to increase pressure on President Vladimir Putin. While oil is a better target for sanctions than gas, alternative supplies are far from assured. Companies and consumers may have to reduce demand, possibly by government decree.
The U.S.-listed Russian tech group may default on a $1.25 bln debt. Even if it cuts a deal with creditors, the economic hit from sanctions will crush its revenue from e-commerce and selling ads. President Vladimir Putin’s internet goals make eventual nationalisation likely.
Severe weather caused $343 bln worth of damage last year, and prompted insurers to either drive up premiums or cease home coverage altogether. States can avoid creating insurance black spots by taking over from the likes of Zurich. The catch is they may not be very good at it.