We look for the FOMC to keep rates on hold at its December 13 meeting, an expectation that is universally shared. If realized, the third consecutive hold would suggest that, rather than the FOMC merely hiking at a slower pace, the fed funds rate probably has reached its terminal level of this cycle.
We look for the FOMC to keep its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at its meeting on September 20. Most market participants expect rates to remain on hold as well.
The FOMC raised its target range for the fed funds rate by 25 bps today. The move was widely expected by financial markets and economists. The Committee has hiked its policy rate by 525 bps since March 2022.