From 1961 to 2,000 and leaves out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes do we really need here and its one and a quarter million and so may be between one and a quart million and one andahalf million is where we aught to be and so now im going to backup and go to the previous slide and if this was penciled in here it would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph sho
Lot better than whereas quarter would indicate and if you look at the forecast here we are looking for two gdp growth in the next years and so how do we get there and what are the various drivers of that and the first case is that residential construct construction is going to help and that is what got us into this mess so it may seem counterintuitive this is the most macro measure i can use to show the residential activity across the country and obviously this fell off the cliff during the recession and has not meaning fully retraced ground during that time period what might be useful is to think about if this is the demand for new homes what is the real im sorry the supply of new homes what is the demand for it how many new homes do we really need and nor to get a sense for that i look at this data series from the United States Census Bureau and this is house of information and if you are young couple getting a first house or an individual whos you know, living in school and getling
One and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value in home price from their local market peak to where they are at present the case sowler composite and San Francisco is halfway through the pack there down to about 33 and so whole values are still off from where they were before but if you look at where we are from the low point until where we are today, San Francisco is looking a little bit better and oakland is not a member city and they randomly take 20 cities that are plead broadly representative of the Housing Market and San Francis
Andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activity the and twice as many framers roofers and home inspector and is then that has a booying fantastic on the overall economy having said that im not living with my head in the sand here i recognize that a lot of markets are still suffering a little bit and this graph show yous you the change of value in home price from their local market peak to where they are at present the case sowler composite and San Francisco is halfway through the pack there down to about 33 and so whole values are still off from where they were before but if you look at where we are from the low point until where we are today, San Francisco is looking a little bit better and oakland is not a member city and they randomly take 20 cities that are plead broadly representative of the Housing Market and San Francisco is the second line on
From the United States Census Bureau and this is house of information and if you are young couple getting a first house or an individual whos you know, living in school and getling their first detriment ask a forms the horizontal line going through there is the average from 1961 to 2,000 and leaves out the last deck a i did ask so it says how many newer homes do we really need here and its one and a quarter million and so may be between one and a quart million and one andahalf million is where we aught to be and so now im going to backup and go to the previous slide and if this was penciled in here it would be a horizontal line through this graph and we would find that we were building way too much at the height of the bubble and so where are we going from here we are going back to one and a quarter or one andahalf million or so overt course of next five years and considering we have been at 600,000 or so, if we go to one. 2 million that is a double in the pace of reconstruction activi