you ve been especially obsessed with both of these because of those middle class voters of color. let me just remind people, 2017 in loudon. north i ve got almost 60%. in 2020, biden got over 60%. what s interesting is i ve heard youngkin people tell me they believe they can get to 48% in loudon. that would tell me there actually are biden youngkin voters. that s right. if youngkin were even able to get 45% in loudon, i think it would be over in his favor. democratic turnout inside the beltway looks pretty good among the professional, high-propensity vote, right? the question for democrats today is are they able to get out the younger, less politically wired and non-white voters who powered biden to that 10% margin in 2020, and were engaged in 2017
chesterfield county in 2017. they carried half the votes. 2017, democrats carried the votes. what can we expect? i expect he will be able to, the question is will the margin be enough. chesterfield is it unique because the democratic trend line is not just the result of suburban white voters changing allegiances, it s also the black vote we ve seen in chesterfield. will that hold up in chesterfield and similar places? speaking of that, i want to go to two suburban quality counties, fairfax, arlington and virginia, the outer suburbs of prince william and loudon, and
mcauliffe has a three-point lead. you might make the argument that democrats haven t passed much of anything. i would also point out that this fits a historical pattern. the party out of power tends to have more enthusiasm on its side because they look to punish the party of the president. my producer said, the suburbs are breaking blue, did you mean red? i mean blue. that s why biden won. fairfax, loudon, manassas, they went bad on trump, the big swing for biden. why don t we believe that will happen again? and even though the base for trump and all of the smaller counties may go youngkin, he won t make it up in the population centers. here s the reason why. there s no slides on this.
loudon is to the northwest of fairfax, george w. bush won it back in 2004. he oats last republican presidential candidate to carry virginia. look, no one expects glenn youngkin to win, but he needs to be competitive. he needs to be 42%, 44%, 46% to have a chance. yeah, that s right. can he cut into these places that have overwhelmingly swung democrat and blown up in terms of side, loudon this suburb where leesburg is a really important kind of measuring stick of this. it s the wealthiest county in the united states as a count owe. it s like the third or fourth largest county in virginia, and that growth has been immigrants, democrats from out of state and moving into the state but it s the issues not just around biden, around the economy or around infrastructure, around afghanistan, but it s issues around schools, the truly suburban issues, so there s two trends going on.
described as the county that could decide this governors race. it could tell us a lot about how voters are feeling not only about those two candidates, glenn youngkin and terry mcauliffe, but also president biden, former president trump and the democratic and republican parties as a whole, especially in washington. here s why. democrats have begun to rely on their so-called blue walls in the suburbs, fairfax county, and increasingly blue loudoun county to the northwest. joe biden won here by 25 points to overcome republican strongholds in much of the rest of the state. as axios puts it, loudon s population took a national spotlight over controversies in the public school system with fox news showing heated school fights over masks and instructions on race. to be clear, the democrat terry