were having that discussion with the editor from the texas tribune, long-time republican, pete sessions has lost to colin allred, former nfl player. steve kornacki. the 11th district in michigan, haley stevens, a democrat, calling her the winner. a pickup. not one of the clinton districts. this is a district donald trump did fairly well in in 2016. one of the reasons he was able to win michigan, but tonight haley stevens, the democrat in this open seat, is picking that up. also, we can show you in that texas district, you re talking about the 30-second pete sessions going down. this is another one of those clinton districts. a clinton suburban district. a long-serving republican being defeated there. you start to add these together, 11, 12, 13, 14 balanced against that one loss they had, that is a net gain of 13. their magic number sits at 10.
almost a straight flip in 2016 to trump. how is that working out? you see the poll there on your screen. the lead by one point is delgado. these districts, they re the clinton districts. republicans represent them right now. but the voters didn t vote for trump in 2016. there are 25 of those. so if democrats clean up with those districts, democrats are probably going to lose a couple of their own. that would basically get them close to house control. the second tier, then, smaller number here, but it s what you re talking about, the ones that went obama and then slipped to trump. the very, very outer edge, you can call it the new york suburbs, but getting into rural, more blue collar areas. here is an endangered republican. faso was elected in 2016 in part because trump did much better in this district than was expected.
republicans voting democrat because they were able to swallow sort of this economic moderate and in some cases conservative message with a person who is opposing donald trump s personal life. the candidate matters. when we get back to costello, it s the worst case scenario for republicans in a whole lot of ways. also the democratic candidate in krissy houlihan is a good candidate. a veteran, a woman and a great fund-raiser. that s going to be something that democrats need to think about as we go through the summer and look at districts. the map you laid out. how much the interesting thing i see and i try to figure out how much this trickles down and spreads out across the country. i see a lot of anger i think or frustration on the left that this idea of reaching out to trump voters and meeting them in the middle. i wonder what you think about this, the idea that the democratic base in response to trump in response to these last two years is to go further to the left and say we do
costello is out. republicans are not going to be stuck with a candidate they re excited about in a district that s a big climb. suddenly democrats with a prime opportunity for a pickup. we said this is not just a ryan costello story but a national story. suburban districts traditionally republican that swung hillary clinton in 2016, check this out. you got 25 of them, not all of these are suburban. a lot of these are but all have one thing in common. republican districts now but hillary clinton won these districts in 2016. remember for democrats, magic number here is 24. you ll see 23 some places because of the special election. 24 is what it really is for technical reasons. they need 24. you got 25 republicans sitting there in clinton districts. in pennsylvania you got this new map in play right now. you got four right there. costello s district is one of them. you go to the west coast, look at this, in california, you got seven, seven republicans is sitting out there in districts
the actual story of the democratic base is about new engagement. one of the things we re seeing my colleague at the nation joan walsh writes about we think about the top of the ticket driving the bottom of the ticket. virginia is a place to think about the midterms where all of these new engagement in the state legislative level, the pink wave we saw in texas will drive a whole new set of people into the congressional election. that will be the story that we re going to start to see in these districts is the way in which new candidates and new voters particularly women and women of color in these districts are entering the conversation because of the state level. this is the philosophy of the governing wing of the democratic party. there is a prerogative wing, the tea party wing thinks this is their moment. they don t need to compromise. they can go for broke and don t need to invite the trump coalition into their coalition which is going to ascendent.