“What do you call James Bond having a bath? Bubble 07.” In different bond matters, mortgage rates will always be higher than Treasury rates, in part because of the prepayment risk in mortgages that doesn’t exist with Treasury bonds. With the drop in rates, sales management personnel at lenders are busy figuring out how best to remind the staff about EPO (early payoff) penalties levied by investors while at the same time working on ways to save money besides furloughing, cutting staff, outsourcing, and re-doing vendor contracts. The recent decline in rates and increase in applications is welcome: According to Curinos, November 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 11 percent YoY and 10 percent MoM. In the Retail channel, funded volume was down 22 percent YoY and 10% MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in November was 7.45 percent, 25bps higher than October and 85bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant
“Who closes the door when the bus driver gets off? The world is full of questions. “Why have all the predictions of lower rates been wrong?” Yesterday I was in the SF Bay Area giving a speech to a group of LOs and management and was asked, “Rob, are you hearing that lenders are requesting clients pay for the credit report(s) up front?” Absolutely I am. Lenders have grown weary of paying for the credit reports of loans that don’t fund and heaping those rising costs on the loans that do. “Rob, are mergers and acquisitions going to pick up?” Yes. We had one recent depository bank deal (Mississippi’s Guaranty Capital Corporation will acquire Lafayette Bancorp, Inc.), but we can expect continued deals in an 8 percent mortgage rate world as lenders and vendors, big and small, re-evaluate either their position in the market or even if they want to continue to exist. (Today’s podcast can be found here: Sponsored by nCino, ma