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How Both Models Evaluated Past QBs
Let s consider the Denver Broncos quarterbacks that have been drafted in the past few years in the top-100 picks: Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, and Drew Lock.
The first version of QBASE projected a negative DYAR for Osweiler in years 3-5, a tally that came to pass. In other words, the model predicted Osweiler as more likely to bust than become at least an adequate starter.
If you go back to the 2016 projections, it gave Lynch a 67% chance of busting and a 33% chance of being at least an adequate starter. Looking at the 2019 projections, it gave Lock a 59% chance of busting and a 41% chance of being at least an adequate starter.
Mar 9, 2021
Dak signed a mega-deal with the Cowboys, 2nd richest contract in the NFL. And if you go back and look at the year he was drafted…just based on what a team is willing to pay him, if nothing else, he is clearly the best pick in the draft.
And when you dig a little deeper, it becomes pure comedy some of the names drafted in front of him. Let’s start @ the top. Jared Goff and Carson Wentz…fair to say you’d rather have Dak?
I’m not going to knit pick each team in the first round that needed a QB…but this was prior to Baker being drafted by the Browns, this was prior to Darnold drafted by the Jets.