The $150 million packages are a good start for America’s regional vision, but what the U.S. does next will be decisive. In Southeast Asia, actions always speak louder than words.
Rodrigo Duterte led the Philippines in the last six years with his own brand of populist, oft-criticized leadership. While his successor may not inherit his bombastic attitude, they will have to take over relations with an ever-powerful China and a long festering maritime row.
China and the United States engage in different ways with other countries. China knows what ASEAN member states really want, while the U.S. maintains the notion of “America first.” It’s only natural for ASEAN leaders to act in their national self-interest.
China’s refusal to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine should have minimal impact on its trade in Asia, analysts in the region say, despite US efforts to ‘tear up the relationship between China, Europe and Asean’.
Cambodia’s close relationship with China has become a model for what it can look like when a nation stays in Beijing’s good graces. Now, its Prime Minister is ascending to lead ASEAN in 2022, setting the stage for a potentially dramatic turn of events in the region, whose members diverge on their feelings towards China’s influence.