In the words of former Vice President Dan Quayle, “We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur.” Around the world, soaring borrowing costs are squeezing homebuyers and property owners alike. So, what does the public see in terms of headlines and the housing market? There was billionaire CEO of private equity company Starwood Capital Group, Barry Sternlicht, warning that the housing market is headed for a major crash. Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi is more optimistic, saying that house prices will soon undergo a ‘correction, but not a ‘crash.’ Almost one-third of homes sold in July were paid for entirely with cash. Wealthy U.S. homebuyers are charging in with all-cash purchases even as the broader housing market is slowed by rising mortgage rates. One thing is certain for those financing or looking to finance their real estate. Households with loans are tightening their belts, while rising mortgage payments discourage wou
One topic of conversation at the MBAH conference is the quote making the rounds, “Marry the house, date the rate,” a nightmare for capital markets and servicing groups engineering hedging programs. On a larger scale, no central bank wants to engineer a recession, of course, but the press seems consumed with the idea of a recession in 2023 or 2024… which would mean a) we’ll hear about it for another year or two while many lenders are just trying to survive, and b) it would probably lead to lower rates. Household balance sheets are currently still in fine shape. Corporate balance sheets are as well since many companies that issue debt regularly refinanced their outstanding debt during the last few years, lowering their obligations. just like millions of homeowners did around the nation. What isn’t as good is the daily operating budgets, especially for companies whose only income is residential lending. The implied year-end Fed funds target is now around