this was january of last year. it s a little more than a year ago. yeah but even before that before june before they moved into mosul, nobody predicted this. nobody saw it. the iraqis didn t see it on the ground. we the west are out of touch with this discontent in the middle east, this disease that s moving through faster than anybody s predicted. so yes, we can blame the intelligence community but we also have to blame everybody else all the other experts including myself. i certainly didn t predict it. so we just cannot tell where this is all going to go. yemen, by the way, is an absolute disaster because in the arab peninsula, south of saudi arabia. if that chaos moves into saudi arabia we will be in a lot of trouble economically. a quarter of the world s oil reserves are there. i m not saying it s going to. but again, who can predict it. phil mudd it sort of reminds me on a different scale