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the opposition is now likely to table a no confidence vote in the government. what chance this could lead to the downfall of the current french government? there s a theoretical possibility of that, but i think it s pretty unlikely. you re right. the 49.3 procedure allows the government to bypass a vote in the national assembly, but it then opens the way to a censure motion, a motion of confidence tabled by the opposition. the thing about the french opposition, that it s very divided. there s the far right, there s the left and the far left, and then there s the conservative opposition for a censure motion to pass all those three elements would have to come together to support the motion, and i think that s pretty unlikely. so the government probably will survive and probably this pension change will go through. but it s a government that will have been winged, i think a government that will been weakened and a government that knows that this protest movement, which has been developing

British governmentNo confidence voteCensure motionNational assembly49 3Protest movementPension change