economy is moving in the right direction. only 33%. only 16% of that survey think their own personal economic circumstances are moving in the right direction. when you have those numbers, it is very tough for an incumbent to make the case that his policies have worked, things are moving in the right direction. so what i think you re going to see is the president will have to turn the conversation away from his record and his performance and he is going to attack romney and say he will take us back to the previous decade. he didn t have the right answers. attack him personally. rick: when i read through all of those different numbers that we told you some of them, the thing that jumped out at me most was that right-wrong track with which we hear every presidential cycle that is a lot of experts say that is the number one determinant how people are going to vote. 60% of the people asked in that new york times - cbs poll said the country is on the wrong track. that is bad for incumben
75. if you had sensible regulation, sensible rules on production, stable dollar you would see, gas at 2, $2.50 a gallon. bill: steve, what do you think this does to our overall economy? depends on how high it goes and how long it goes but what is your sense at the moment? what it does, obviously hurts the pocketbook but more psychology. this recovery even though we re going to do better this year, far better this year than last year, is still a very fragile thing. and the uncertainty in the middle east is going to be another, an added element to this. so people are holding back. we re moving forward but i like to say we re going 40 miles an hour on the highway when we should be going miles an hour. bill: i m driving right by you if that is the case. you will see my contrails. that cbs poll came out yesterday, drop from month to month, down to 41%, down nine points that is significant fall there. what the president told a
someone that does have the determination and record to take on barack obama. gregg: issues as you just described thems might that alienate many moderate, key independents, the swing voters that dictate general elections? no. what we re seeing as you noted with the growing momentum with the rick santorum campaign people are starting to recognize that mitt romney is a moderate that is not going to be able to take on barack obama. gregg: yeah. rick san is is winning over independents. winning over moderates an undecided and we re seeing in polls. gregg: no, not the new york times cbs poll out today. overwhelmingly they chose mitt romney on the electability issue. let me point out one other thing, polls consistently show most voters don t really like washington insiders. rick santorum spent 16 years in washington. isn t the quintessential insider and isn t that a liability? well, 16 years fighting washington. as i said, a member of the gang of seven that coast
really? 39% to 23%? that is still a 16-point spread. this is a secret that is hidden in plain view. you can go back over the polls for the last six months and what you will find, whether it is rasmussen or nbc marist or washington post abc. what you will find that the perception is he unelectable, nine, 8% of registered republican voters think he will win. in the same polls they pit him against obama he does better against all the gop candidates except romney and in statistical margin error with romney. the cbs poll came out on monday shows he beats everybody with independents including obama and romney. bill: you know there s a big challenge coming up on 21st in south carolina. youth vote, 50% of the between 18 and 30 in new hampshire. in 2008, ron paul is fifth place finisher in
you, karl? herman cain is on a roll. i think is sort of peaked. if you look at national polls on the herman cain, between the 6th and 10th of october when he hits the highest number on the polls and he slid since then. he has a small need. if you look at real clear politics average he has one point lead over romney. national polls don t mean that much. four years ago, rudy giuliani was first place 28. nearly 20% was fred thompson and john mccain and mitt romney were in a fight for third place back then in the low teens. what really matters what is candidate does to translate the strength that they have in a national poll into strength in these early states where iowa, new hampshire, south carolina, nevada, to some degree florida where they insist seeing you, particularly first four, they want to see you before they make a conscience decision who they support. jon: who is the doing the best job doing that in your view? depends on the state. in iowa it is a jump ball.