Brian, if you want to say its a house of cards that was built by the policymakers in order to bail out the Financial System during the crisis one day, you know, a breeze came along and knocked over one with the cards and its bringing the whole house down well, the house, the equity market rose 13 this week. I understand we are still well down on the year it seems like the fed has shored up the credit market, but it sounds like youre not believing that the bottom is in yet. No, i dont think so. I mean, brian, when we look at some of the data that were getting with Unemployment Insurance claims and so on and so forth, you know, it would suggest that, you know, were going to get to a place worse than the financial crisis economically unemployment perhaps around 15 and Economic Contraction for the year, say maybe in the neighborhood of 10 . These are pretty nasty numbers and when you look at valuations on stocks, the degree of overvaluation where we were at the peak just six weeks ago vers
What weve seen is that this stock tlt is moving 40 from the december 2018 lows if we zoom in, tlt is up 15 its reading fairly over bought. Now to seismic shifts in everythi everything, that trade has not gone our way first up, get Something Different with everybody we want to talk about the lessons weve learned and what were seeing a little more macro than usual given the week, very appropriate. We did two things that were very specific and identical last week we were saying that tlt after a great run had gone too far what we were trying to do is buck the trend, go against moment momentum we said that cruise ships, we picked one, were going straight down had gone down too far. We were going to make the call that they were going up. Cruise ships got a lot worse and tlt got a lot better each had a big week against us the point is, sometimes its very important to be contrarian and sometimes you get your head handed to you. Thats what happened. Were utilizing these trades. Were using optio
36000 deaths. We were shocked to hear. 27000 or 77000, i guess they said in 1990, as the time i left with you, 240 cases. What happened is, the timing, 240 cases, 11 deaths. Thats what i just said. Look at south korea and china, i think the numbers are getting much better. When i hear, 240 cases, 11 deaths. I dont want any deaths. Right . I never heard, i was shocked. 36000, 27000, 77 . I wonder whats going on here. Look at the percentage, under 1 . This could also be under 1 because many of the people on , they dont report so they are not putting those people in there. I dont watch cnn. Cnn is fake news. You dont want to think about me, i like when people stay in the United States, spend their money in the United States. I think youve been saying in the United States, it will and. People have to remain calm. I do think look at the numbers and you look at these numbers, it will be interesting to see what you find. There was a big statistic way under 1 . One tenth of 1 . Nobody really k
Welcome, everybody good to have you here with us on options action. Obviously escalating coronavirus fears ripping through the markets all this week. 96 of the s p 500 now in correction territory or worse, meaning down below 10 from the highs. All three major indexes handing in their worst week. The financial crisis since 2008. The dow shedding 3600 points more than 10 down energy and financials, the largest victims of the selloff both down more than 13 in the last week. If you are wondering how to protect your portfolio, who isnt, amid this madness, our team of options workers are here carter werth, tony zhang and mike khouw we know this was an historic week for stocks and bonds. Mike, in any way was it historic for the Options Market yeah. I think anything thats going to be an historic move for equities is going to be an historic move for options on those same equities this is certainly one of those same cases we had the vix get almost up to 50 at some point today so that obviously i
Test absolutely does have earnings coming out this coming week along with home depot. Carter, thanks so much come back over to the desk im going to send it out to mike whats the trade here if youre looking at lowes . Yeah, i think lowes is an interesting situation. First from a valuation situation, we had the market come back, but trading close to alltime highs lowes too trading close to alltime highs in price action but not earnings, 6 to 8 times earnings, thats expensive in the current context. When we look at names like this, whether its home depot or lowes, oftentimes people prefer home depot because they have a higher percentage of contractor business 40 of this comes from that where this is more individuals they have higher sales per square foot at home depot. The thing youd take a look at, take a look at the spread between the two in valuation thats right where it is on average. If you like the space im going along with carters technical view the thing you need to Pay Attention