Be day of angst and uncertainty, investors biting their nails, but it was met with the risk on attitude and the markets. Aroundn person votes, 100 million americans who cast their ballots ahead today. Hawaii and texas both reporting that early voter turnout has exceeded the total number of ballots cast in the last residential election. President ial last election. We wait to see if congress will be a help or hindrance. We start analyzing trading and the bet for a blue wave. Of big gains in the course theory, which doesnt tell you anything about the electoral outcome, but tells us that the markets are not expecting a massive gridlock or something problematic. If you look at the flows, there things. E interesting st voo, that is an interesting one. , also rallying. That is not dramatic, one week of flows, but that would be consistent with the election marking some sort of rotation point, which is a theme we have been talking about a lot. Romaine an interesting graphic there, joe. I also
Americas bag. Jay powell confirming the central bank supported the economy and calling for further fiscal stimulus. The market is desperately trying to price in the future stimulus. It is Pretty Amazing how much markets have thrived in this uncertainty. Joe joe here we are trying to figure out what is going on in the election and it has not been an issue. For more on the latest, i want to welcome Bloomberg Government kyle trigg stead. Thank you for joining us. What are watching most closely . Right now, we are waiting for final results in georgia. The president ial race we are watching but the senate race, david purdue, republican senator just dropped below the 50 threshold necessary to avoid a runoff. If those results hold and he finishes with less than 50 , he will be going to a runoff the jon ossoff on january 5 a runoff with john also have on january 5. Then were looking at the control of the senate being decided after the new year. Romaine the story in georgia intriguing on the se
Front. Caroline the question is whatd you miss . Data shows that the u. S. Retail sales rose in september at the fastest pace in three months. Numbers released next week and china are expected to reveal that the nation is on pace to grow this year, with Industrial Production on fire. When you look at the big picture, joe, economic reports confirm that china needs the u. S. And the u. S. Needs china. Their economies are linked handinhand on the industrial and consumption levels. There are many issues between these governments, that we would see. But there is a link between the two economies and it is remarkable. Joe it is pretty striking because so much of the story of the economy, the Global Economy some overproduction in china, it is the opposite. You see this in our charts that Cameron Crise made. Industrialine is recovery of precrisis levels, very impressive. On the consumption side, it is very far below precrisis trends. Chinasuction side of economy is roaring back a lot faster. Ca
Poweris more left promises. Longerterm there is uncertainty. And how these actions will affect real people and real purchases and real jobs. Bornhe new economy is from the crisis but it could leave some markers behind. Moreneed to think creatively about inclusion in the workforce. There is a discussion from the decisions made during the crisis and the longerterm ramifications. Get a lot of this can theoretical the connection between the fed approach and the framework and what actually happens in the real economy. Lets first talk a little bit more about these projections for the Federal Reserve. I think one of the key things is, you know, look, there is improvement. Byy see gdp only shrinking 3. 7 , they see unemployment at 7. 6 is sent, extremely elevated we were at 3. 5 going into the crisis most importantly there, inflation still nowhere near their goals. That is a big part of the reason and i think, romaine, youll be looking at why they see themselves at the factor zero rates for se
Im watching a big apple supplier. 16 , now the highest since june 2017. Supplier,ig apple benefiting from strong demand, the iphone as well. All this makes you want to look at the supply chain analysis. 81 percent of revenue comes from apple, up 5 from a year ago. Is saying that apple pods givingving the company a big boost. Well. G ford as another good boost for suppliers. Stock market did finish lower on the back of trade headlines and weaker than expected economic data, but we are still close to an alltime high. There is evidence that investors in etfs are getting nervous. From two of the largest etfs, 8 billion leaving. Isntmbined value really that large compared to other voo is stickier money. For thee worst month fund on record. Where as you would see this movement in spy as a vehicle for investing, not so much in voo. In spite of stocks at alltime highs, some etf investors are wanting to get out and reallocate. Copper, downng at 2 today, following other base metals. Chinas Manuf