ASB has this month removed a number of transaction fees across its personal and business accounts, including fees on Visa Debit cards, staff assisted transactions, and the establishment of personal overdrafts. Customers across more than 800,000 .
The latest edition of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey pointed to consumer sentiment remaining near its historic lows in December, the index rising just 2.7% to 82.1 compared to a long-run average of 100.8. The probability of further rate hikes may be dwindling, but consumers find themselves under considerable financial pressure as a result of the tightening experienced to date; the cumulative hit to real incomes from inflation; and a rising tax take, the latter principally a consequence of bracket creep and a topic discussed in depth by Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis. From the survey, the persistence of these factors is as significant as their scale: 2023 being the second weakest year ever for consumer sentiment overall; and assessments of family finances versus a year ago and for the year ahead respectively 23% and 15% below average.
The RBA’s November Statement on Monetary Policy upgrades the inflation and growth forecasts even with a higher assumed path for interest rates. How this can coexist with an unusually large fall in household sector real incomes remains to be seen. Risks to the inflation forecast are also skewed to the upside. If things turn out in line with the RBA’s revised forecasts, they might not need to raise rates again. But the bar to further hikes is clearly lower now; the RBA has almost no margin for further upside surprises.