There hasnt been a single vote cast, but theyre cowards. Theyre jumping on board as quickly as they can for whatever reason. Here is an interesting number also, mika, that we havent talked about yet. Ann seltzer talking about how Nikki Haley supporters seem to be the least intense. Also, look at this, if the general Election Choice was Donald Trump or Joe Biden, 43 of Nikki Haleys supporters say, i guess, they just cant bear the fact of Donald Trump being president. 43 would vote for Joe Biden instead of Donald Trump. Mika . That is sort of the balance that shes striking, i guess, in her candidacy. But Iowa Tonight appears to be Donald Trumps. Then we move on. Still ahead on well see. Let them vote. Whats that . I said, we shall see. Let them vote. Let them vote. Well report who voted for
Whatsoever. Trump has been up by roughly 30 points since last summer. Among those who know iowa republican politics best, the possibility of a shock the World Upset is vanishingly close to zero. No Way Trump doesnt win. Almost impossible. Iowa surprises people a lot. I dont think we have that kind of surprise in us right now. Reporter that was his view even before the release on saturday of the final Nbc News des moines register, Media Com Iowa poll conducted by the Revered Pollster ann seltzer, showing trump at 48 with a 28point lead. Only deepening the pervasive sense that trump has iowa in the bag. But the Iowa Poll also showed haley, for the first time, overtaking desantis, arguably turning their fight for second place into caucus nights main event. In this race, there has been no punches thrown from the contenders after the guy at the top, so here we are
Personal enough is unlikely to be in the same galaxy as hers. Guys, to me, a couple takeaways here, and ill toss back to you to talk about it, one is this interesting question. If we end up in a situation where Nikki Haley has a Big Night and she ends up in a oneonone essentially with trump, thats what people wanting to stop trump said we needed all along. They said it in 2016, 2020, and now 2024. You Cant Beat Trump in a spread out field. You could end up after tonight with really the Oneonone Dynamic that people have said is the only way for trump to ever be taken down. In that case, iowa will have winnowed the field and will have done its job. The other thing ill say, ann seltzers point about the lack of enthuiasm for haley, she holds out the possibility that its a low turnout scenario, bad
Broadcast news where youre in the aleutian islands. You wanted to kill me. It is so cold there. I was listening to Jonathan Lemire and interviewing people about already talking about what was and what was not going to happen in south carolina, and im reminded of what Tom Brokaw said as we were all sitting around the table in 2008. All of us talking about saying our farewells to Hillary Clinton because she was going to get stomped the next day. Right. Going to get stomped in new hampshire. Tom brokaw comes on and said, i strongly suggest we wait until the voters have spoken. So when i look at these polls, and people are saying, well, this is dispositive. If this is how it is going to end up, it is a great poll. Ann seltzer, one of the greatest
Your Job Wasnt enough. You actually had to still do more. John heilemann, thank you so much. Absolutely loved your look, your view at iowa. Greatly appreciate it. We will be talking to you tomorrow morning. Miss you guys here. We miss you, too. Enjoy the weather. [ laughter ] anyway, charlie sykes, youre in the middle of that weather, too. I have to say, if foreign policy doesnt matter to republicans that are voting, Ann Seltzer and the Des Moines register poll also shows us that donald trumps crimes, possible crimes, possible conviction, 61 , dont matter if he is convicted. One in five say itll make him more likely to support him. There you have 80 of republicans saying, we dont