Although commercial entities can contribute positively to health and society there
is growing evidence that the products and practices of some commercial actors notably
the largest transnational corporations are responsible for escalating rates of avoidable
ill health, planetary damage, and social and health inequity; these problems are increasingly
referred to as the commercial determinants of health. The climate emergency, the non-communicable
disease epidemic, and that just four industry sectors (ie, tobacco, ultra-processed
food, fossil fuel, and alcohol) already account for at least a third of global deaths
illustrate the scale and huge economic cost of the problem.
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The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting public health measures have had significant impacts on daily life, including shifts in health behaviours which contribute to weight gain and may increase subsequent risk of chronic diseases such as cancer. Using OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool, we estimated the future burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data on unintentional weight gain among adults during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Population impact measures were estimated until 2042, assuming a 12-year latency period. We estimated 12,160 excess cancer cases and 4,567 excess cancer deaths by 2042 due to COVID-19 related weight gain. The largest estimated impacts were observed for endometrial, kidney and liver cancers among women, with potential impact fractions (PIF) of 2.87%, 1.67% and 1.30%, respectively. For men, the largest mean PIFs were observed for esophageal (2.48%), kidney (1.85%) and liver (1.47%) cancers. Changes in health behavior during the COVID-19 pande