Statistics Canada released November crush data, accounting for the first 33% of the canola crop year and the first 25% of the soybean crop year. The current pace of canola and soybean crush is on track to meet or exceed the current AAFC forecast for 2021-22.
The December 2022 MGEX spring wheat contract led all spring wheat contracts higher on Dec. 22, while nearing a test of the contract high. The December 22/March 23 futures spread points to a bullish inverse.
AAFC s December supply and demand tables include Statistics Canada s final production estimates, which has led to the largest revisions for both production and exports for wheat and durum.
Soybean oil futures are under pressure, while the canola-soybean oil spread, measured in Canadian dollars/mt, is moving closer to its long-term average.
With production problems seen across serval of the world s largest wheat exporters, we see that global export demand is forecast to increase in 2021-22 while the share of these exports covered by the eight largest exporters is seen falling.