As if lenders and vendors don’t have enough other stuff to worry about, the budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn't look like it will abate soon, raising the likelihood of the first government shutdown since 2019. Current funding for federal operations will end on October 1 unless a deal is reached or the proverbial can kicked down the road. Thousands of federal workers might be furloughed without pay. Sure it will be temporary, and its wider impact will likely be limited, but still even talking about it is lousy. According to Morgan Stanley, the last 20 government shutdowns that occurred since 1976 "appear to have had limited impact on the economy." As for bond prices, a shutdown may cause some "temporary instability", but this is not a given. There is talk of a short-term Continuing Resolution (CR) providing funding until later this year, but federal agencies, including HUD and Treasury, will cease to function normally. The National F
In the press, here’s some information on the hit the Fed’s balance sheet has taken give the bond market selloff. And here at the MBA’s annual, some of the talk is about new products and about cost cutting. Yes, lenders are looking for new products, or help in exploring the viability of rolling something new out. For example, at the Capital Markets Committee meeting Sunday, I spent some time with Susan Brown, CMB, Founder & CEO of CoreSGB which helps lenders roll out construction loan products. In terms of cost cutting, I’ve spoken to a few owners who challenged their department heads to cut their costs 15 percent instead of the usual 10 percent, and brainstorm with others in doing it. We all know that net basis point goals (like aiming for 75 to 105 bps) have pretty much gone away. But if you’re “only” hitting breakeven, then unintended events can bring you to large losses quickly. If a company is seeing operational excessive